[Luckydestiny]

pagan, not something I want implemented mate

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[Luckydestiny]

banjo, my degree is mathematics. at uni we developed model for calculating football odds and when you account for a bookie margin of approx 13% their odds very closely correlated with ours. we only considered objective stats not levels of money wagered. The GF/GA ratio was more sophisticated in the modelling and tried to factor out luck by looking at abilities to create clear chances relative to ability to concede few clear chances, bit like expected goals eg

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[Luckydestiny]

I’ll check it out

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[Luckydestiny]

No Im with you banjo. That this game allows for such upsets is what makes it so great, but it was an upset none the less. city are still vastly superior, and regardless of that result city will still be at least 1 to 4 on with bookies to beat palace when they next meet.

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[Luckydestiny]

also comparing results against one specific opponent is flawed, but what are the odds that all 10 teams were weaker against team A than B in that scenario? let alone all 38 games.

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[Luckydestiny]

banjo, why respect the points totals even if you look at it like that? @10:18am

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[Luckydestiny]

banjo, strength is measured over 38 games, there will always be one off games that defy the odds like palace v city, but you are not trying to suggest that one result for palace means city are not vastly superior are you?

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[Luckydestiny]

banjo, if team A wins 10 games 4-1 and team B beats the same teams 3-2, intuitively we would deduce team A were superior but this would not be reflected in points as they would have 30 each. The GF/GA ratio does reflect it, team A 4.00 team B 1.50.

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[Luckydestiny]

yeah stevo, was bored last night, spent half hour on bit about last season but couldnt help looking back at past champs, that bit took a lot longer 🙂

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[Luckydestiny]

hightown, i would prefer this ratio used than goal difference as secondary ranking to points. It may have been previously I will have look into it.

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[Luckydestiny]

banjo, the point is to get feel of relative strength. We all agree with points totals as a ranking method but it can skewed too if you consider that with a bit of luck 1 point can turn in to 3 for a team that is being outplaye. This average is just another imperfect way of comparing strength. It correlates very well with league order for a reason, the higher the average, the better the team.

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[Luckydestiny]

Thats it banjo, we criticise it but it counts for little when the reality of the modern game is that there is little incentive to be honest but massive incentive to be dishonest.

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[Luckydestiny]

rugby doesnt regularly reward it though, thats the difference.

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[Luckydestiny]

I thought it was foul on grealish to be fair though

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[Luckydestiny]

I think wee jack should watch englands captain to see how to do it without getting booked banjo 🙂

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[Luckydestiny]

stevo, ive already left it mate

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[Luckydestiny]

mak, I agree but its not as though our good or bad periods are sporadic. There is a pattern to it. We start games with high tempo and intensity we could cause any team problems….for 30 mins that is. After fatigue sets in we lose control and thats when the youth and inexperience in our team really shows.

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[Luckydestiny]

I agree re zouma, but it is possible Lamps thinks even less of Christensen, I was surprised to see him dropped on weekend and tomori given his debut. Rudiger has been injured too.

I think Pulisic is doing alright, his movement, dribbling and running is creating space and opportunities for others. Thought he did ok against pool, and although ruled out, the goal he scored showed a lot of quality. Still, with pedro injured, hudson-odoi out, and willian not match fit, I think Pulisic had to be played. Pulisic doesnt have the experience and quality around him that would ideally be there when bedding him in as he is very raw still, but same can be said for mount, tammy, tomori and all the other youngsters we are relying on this year.

There are far more positives than negatives for me, I am hoping to see some minor adjustments to how we set up in possession so that we are more secure when turned over. We are starting games so well and taking leads, we just need to be smarter and learn to slow the tempo and take control of games when we can.

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[Luckydestiny]

We are playing such a high tempo hightown that come second half our players just cant keep it up. I think thats when the inexperience really shows and we lose control of games.

Im not pessimistic about it to be fair, we can finish 4th this year, It is a real possibility, lots of quality to come back in to the side too as you point out.

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[Luckydestiny]

Hightown, thats exactly it mate, Chelsea have been bang average but the games are so exciting because of all the errors being made. Maybe the pace of the game and the amount of high pressure is leading to more mistakes in general and more exciting games. Alan hansen would probably just say players dont know how to defend any more but it makes for better games.

P.s, I have left it there now, my last post was my closing one on that mate.

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