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Ok, very nice Pagan, and worth discussing as you say. Firstly, its about scale, as the average is relative to the opposition in one season, the best team can be the highest reference point on the scale, and surely would be with 38. Again I never said this was a 100% accurate system for measuring relative strength, so making this slight adjustment to define a scale is not actually that big a deal.
Now, as unlikely as it would be for every game to be won 1-0, if it were to happen then the team in question would have proven capable of winning at a 100% rate based on the 38 games passed. Now that means the average opponent has a 0% win rate against them right? Now there are many teams that have 0% win rates against other teams, for example san marino, and they would be as high as 40/1 against to win against a top international team, roughly meaning they are 40 times less likely to win or 40 times weaker. If a team wins every game in the prem league then the odds of them losing to an average prem side would be as steep as the odds of germany losing to say san marino. The point of this is to show that 38 to 1 is not that steep in the context of football, not that the odds are the same in each case.
Of course the reason the counter example has to be so absurd is because the example provided by yourself is admittedly absurd, in reality a team that wins every game 1-0 would be so reliant on luck to actually win all those games that we’ll sooner find a monkey who can read shakespeare than a champion with that record.
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Pagan I was hoping some one would have the smarts to bring that up mate, should have known would be you
As unlikely as that scenario is, it is possible of course. Now anything divided by zero in mathematical terms is undefined, as you would expect really as while you can divide an object into one or more parts, you can not divide it into zero parts.
So, a team with 38 goals for and 0 against would have to be scored the same as if it scored 38 and conceded 1, ie 38.
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Broadly yes nil, but the gulf was massive even between pool and chelsea last year as well, and the averages highlight that to. And because the number is a product of division (not subtraction like goal difference) it allows you to easily compare averages of one team next to another and there are no negative numbers to over complicate things either.
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Nil no one is talking about rewarding teams based on these averages, as I said above “All I am saying is that this is a very decent yardstick for roughly measuring the differences in strengths of teams based on how each has performed over 38 games.”
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Banjo, along the the lines of hightowns post, if city are roughly 4 times more likely to beat palace than vice versa, and you agree with that, then you actually accept that city are roughly speaking 4 times better, because what is the strength of a team other than its ability to win a game?
No one can objectively measure the strength of a team in a stat, you got the wrong end of the stick if you think that is what I am attempting here. All I am saying is that this is a very decent yardstick for roughly measuring the differences in strengths of teams based on how each has performed over 38 games. when the differences are small I dont think it says that much, but when differences get above 0.5 the differences are really telling and decisive in what each team achieves;
Less than 0.5, going down
0.5 to 1, barely surviving to mid table
1 to 1.5, mid table to europa league contention
1.5 to 2, odds on top 4 (in rare earlier prem years possible championship)
2+, Used to mean likely champions but not last year and probably not this year. Will almost certainly need goal average of 4+ to win league this year again._____________________________
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Hightown, you make good points there. You are spot on imo re minimal difference in goal average vs goal difference. In fact If you look at the order of teams based on goal average in my initial post, you will notice that every deviation from the actual league table due to goal average would also be apparent if ranked in order of goal difference. The only reason I prefer goal average is that it is slightly more balanced in that it values defence higher than goal difference, and also because it is factorised rather than a simple sum, it is easier to compare and contrast.
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agreed pagan
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Was also just reading that the reason it was switched from goal average to goal difference was to encourage teams to be more offensive and not worry too much about not conceding. Doesnt seem much of an incentive to me since it only comes in to play in the rare circumstance in which two teams are level on points (and goal average and goal difference will be closely correlated any way). Changing 2 points per win to 3 points really makes sense to that end, but I dont really see how much difference goal difference vs goal average makes to it.
Also I do think that defence is important and good defence should be credited, I think I prefer goal average to goal difference as a tie breaker, if head to head record is tied also.
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Hightown, just looked it up. Teams on equal points were separated by goal average rather than goal difference up until 1976. Goal average is exactly what I was talking about, goals scored divided by goals conceded. The more goals a team scores for every one it concedes, the better the team is in general at outscoring opposition. Outscoring the opposition is the aim and so the ranking by points achieved is very closely correlated to ranking by goal average. Obviously I think teams should be judged first and foremost by points achieved, but find goal average a more informative and intuitive way to analyse the differences between teams and get a sense of how much better one team is relative to another, over a course of a full season.
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Brian, even Jose himself has said that city are fantastic defensively, it is obvious to all. I think pep didnt have the players to defend the way he wanted in first season and the pundits jumped on the chance to brand him defensively naive and to sound a bit smart. But since he has been able to rebuild the defence with players to his liking, along with the magnificence of fernandinho, city have become very very good defensively, one of the best defences in prem league history, and imo they are the greatest offensively, its a hell of a combination.
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Mikus, I think it does if the big boys in question are sound defensively. Pool and city certainly are and so in their case I completely agree with you.
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I do find it weird that he talks about the “delusions” of newcastle fans when he himself was deluded in to thinking he was good enough to play for a better team at that time, no one else came in for him so he should be grateful to Newcastle really.
Shame how is career went he was phenomenal for a few years as a youngster.
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…..by losing money, I mean
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I have contributed greatly to their cause banjo 🙂
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One thing I found interesting looking back at the numbers for past champs is that for a long while it seemed as though scoring 1.7 goals per goal conceded used to put a team in contention for a title. Most of utd’s titles were won averaging just over 2 goals per goal conceded. If you look at it chronologically you see roughly a pattern of the bar being lifted.
First Arsenal come along, they didnt raise the bar that much at first from 2.00, but the invincibles did raise it to 2.81. You can see then that chelsea came along right after and as a result of being defensively the best PL ever and having a decent attack they blew all previous numbers away. You can see how utd reacted to this and how their numbers sharply increased to the 3’s in response considerably higher than what they used to show, and they regained dominance.
Liverpool and city pushed themselves to a tremendous height last year, both breaking 4.
It will be interesting to see if they both get above 4’s this year too, considering it is such a unique achievement in prem history. Liverpool currently on 4.00, city on 4.66, only 4 games gone so means little, but can they do it again? I think they can.
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Banjo, I dont like bookies either mate, but they know what they are doing.
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pagan, not something I want implemented mate
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banjo, my degree is mathematics. at uni we developed model for calculating football odds and when you account for a bookie margin of approx 13% their odds very closely correlated with ours. we only considered objective stats not levels of money wagered. The GF/GA ratio was more sophisticated in the modelling and tried to factor out luck by looking at abilities to create clear chances relative to ability to concede few clear chances, bit like expected goals eg
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I’ll check it out
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No Im with you banjo. That this game allows for such upsets is what makes it so great, but it was an upset none the less. city are still vastly superior, and regardless of that result city will still be at least 1 to 4 on with bookies to beat palace when they next meet.
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