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…and maxing, relaxing all cool, shooting some b-ball outside of the school?
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Outcome 8: Mason Mount to win they young PFA player. and win the FA cup.
Would take that CM!
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Yes Chucky, the teams started in different positions and Klopp had a lower bar to raise, but he didnt just raise it to match Poch, he went much higher, and they were facing the same competition mate.
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You are right chucky, Klopp took over a team with a much worse average, because they were a much worse team when he took them over than spurs were when Poch took them over. Under Klopp Pool become a much better team than they were…progression.
The gain under Poch is far less impressive. Yes it is 0.08 and 0.44 respectively which looks minimal, but in terms of gain in points per season this translates to approx 3 points per season more for Spurs under Poch than before and 16.7 points per season more for Pool under Klopp.
Pepe’s average “improvement” would be pretty damn low, and therefore he would be an “average” manager too!
No need to even look in to that chucky, you already know that city didnt get 100 or 98 points under pellegrini or mancini, there has obviously been an uplift and you will see it if you look at the table in my second post!
Man city with Pep (126 games) 301 points = 2.39 per game
Man City 3 seasons before Pep (114 games) 231 points = 2.04 per game
( if you extend the fixtures back further to get 126 games for period before pep, then Peps gain will only increase as they did even worse)Pep Made City considerably better, it is proven by the stats, Klopp made Pool considerably better, it is proven by the stats, Poch did a fraction better but in terms of chances of champs league qualification he was was aided greatly by the collapses of united and arsenal, it is clear in the points totals.
As for the rationale behind the number of games considered, well Poch had 202 games with Spurs and it is right to consider all his games, when I looked in to it I needed a measure of what spurs were doing before Poch to compare his results too, now doesnt it seem logical to choose the previous 202 games so the data sets are the same size? These are the data sets I was comparing at the time so seems fair they are the same size.
Same rationale then with Klopp, he had 157 games with Pool so I compared it with the 157 games previous.
When it came to comparing the increases of both managers the totals were divided by the respective games to get an average per game and so the different sizes of the sets are not problematic.
Besides all I was doing was getting a measure of the base level of each club before so can compare to after, averages over 3-5 seasons are a decent way of doing that. Any longer and the data gets less relevant, but ideally you would want the largest useful samples possible and in each case it seemed appropriate to use all the games each manager had over seen.
Like with Pep above, if you increase the games we use for the pre klopp liverpool average to 202 games to match the number of games we measure spurs on prior to poch, then Klopps relative gain will actually go up further, as the season we would be going into is the 11/12 season when pool got only 52 points!
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You’re correlating multiple data streams and using them as a comparison. Why compare the 157 pre-Kloop games at Liverpool with the 202 pre-Poncho games at Spurs??
Ah, Im not doing that chucky….
I am comparing Spurs under poch, which is 202 games, to the 202 spurs games before Poch so the sets are comparable and wholy appropriate considering I am simply looking at the points earned to determine if there was a considerable uplift when Poch came in compared to what they were achieving on average before he came in. 17 points more over 202 games is peanuts, ie not really that considerable.
Equally, I am comparing Pool with Klopp (157 games) with the same number of games prior to Klopp to see if there is any considerable uplift under him, and there was, 69 points in only 157 games. That isnt peanuts mate, far greater gain in points with 45 games less. This is statistically very significant and you dont need to be a Doctor of mathematics to get it 🙂
Judging managers on how much they improve things from how things were before they were appointed is pretty much how its done chucky, it shouldnt seem so illogical to you, really.
Now what I am showing in the attached table is something completely different and is meant to show the differing top 4 landscapes in the 5 and a bit seasons Poch was at spurs to the 5 seasons before. It shows clearly, taking spurs out of the equation, that top 4 was a tougher ask the 5 years before him than it was when he was there.
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Glad you appreciated it Ed. Cheers fella.
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Chucky, your basically arguing that its unfair to judge manager X or team X against Poch unless manager X or Team X has had a terrible run of results? Thats absurd cyber chum, its the relative results I am comparing here, you are missing the point. Also, I am comparing and contrasting the performances of all the clubs over the period Poch was at spurs (5 seasons and 12 games) to the performances to all the clubs the 5 seasons prior.
If you take spurs results out of it, and just look at the performances of the other clubs in each period (when poch was at spurs and the 5 seasons before) you get a decent measure of the obstacles spurs were up against to finish top 4. Look at the table, before Poch was at spurs, City, Chelsea, Utd and Arsenal were all much better than them so finishing top 4 was almost impossible, hence they rarely did. Now, continuing to ignore spurs results, in the period poch was at spurs, both Arsenal and Utd really dropped off and were not the teams they were prior to Poch’s arrival, this meant there were at most 3 teams better placed than Spurs and so finishing 4th could not be seen as an over achievement.
You are also overthinking it talking about making formulas mate, how do we decide who is champion? By doing a course in calculus? No, its by the number of points achieved, thats how we seperate our teams, so working directly with points totals is as pure and objective as you can get, and dividing by number of games over an appropriate set of games to get stats that are more easily comparable is harmless too.
I was curious to inform my opinion with this exercise not prove a pre-determined point mate, you really have my intention here all wrong. I never saw the sacking coming and wanted to see if there was some good reasoning behind it, turns out there is, but I would have been defending Poch right now if the stats backed him up mate.
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In some ways I understand what you mean by the “ghost” of Fergie CM, but when it comes down to it mate this squad is not a patch on Fergies last title winning team, and they werent that good. Relative to Fergie’s best squads this one is terrible.
They need better players, its as simple as that. Problem is, while top players cost a shit load of money, spending shit loads of money doesnt guarantee top players. They just need to be smarter… yes, I am going on mastermind next week, my specialist subject is the bleeding obvious 🙂
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Decent shout Ed,
Dont know if you noticed but Mav is showing as Blocked, do you know why Ed?
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Who are you fancying to replace Ole then Ed? Gather its not Poch 🙂
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Chucky, of course if you remove the worst statistics, or edit out the best, then the averages would be a lot different, but why would you do that and what is your point?
The best set of statistics to use is Poch’s entire PL record with spurs, I havent just arbitrarily selected a subset of games to suit my argument, the statistics are based on every PL game spurs played under Pochettino, and, given the discussion is Poch’s achievements with Spurs, why shouldnt they be?
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Ed, I remember you making those arguments, I would have disagreed at the time, I was under the spell and didnt buy it at all. Its only after Levy sacked him that I actually tried looking at it objectively, and you were spot on mate. I thought you were bloody Loopy talking about Jose as possible spurs manager too but again you called it.
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Nil, Poch surely has a legacy mate, but regards the progress you refer to, the point of my post can be summed up from my last paragraph:
It seems clear to me that Spurs progress to regular CL qualification was more to do with their rivals dropping to their level, than spurs punching above their weight and rising up considerably themselves.
I am arguing that we have overestimated the progress he has actually made because the stats that matter the most suggest that we have.
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Mikus, the more I think about it the more it makes sense, under Poch spurs have played some great football but always come short, even when their only obstacle was Leicester, and really its just a continuation of what they were pre-Poch because thats exactly how I have always seen Spurs, capable of playing great stuff, but always bottle it in the end. What has changed like I showed above, is that a few of the teams that would usually have finished below them have regressed really badly. Poch had an easier task finishing top 4 in his era with his spurs squad than Redknapp or Villas Boas did, they had to contend with Chelsea, Arsenal, United and City who were all superior teams, now only Pool and City have superior squads, maybe Chelsea too, but even if you include them thats only three teams compared to the 4/5 teams the other spurs managers have had to contend with.
Totally agree with Nine, Poch is a good manager, but unlike Pep, Klopp or indeed Jose, he is not special, not yet….
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Click the PNG image
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ED, why is Mav showing as Blocked?
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There is no denying that Jose’s career has been so exceptional that Poch could never compare.
Mak, forget Jose’s entire career, Just look at Porto or Inter individually and explain why what Poch has achieved with spurs comes even close to either one.
These stats are very handy when it comes to backing up an opinion but let’s remember that the PL has (in my opinion and I think most?) become more competitive and much more difficult to win. What is Klopp’s record like in those amount of games? I’d bet they are nothing incredible, yet here we are, considered to be one of the best, if not the best around at the moment anyway. My point is that those stats do not necessarily say what you think they do.
Mak, I didnt highlight those stats because they backed up my own pre-determined narrative or opinion (although it seems you dismissed them out of hand because they didnt fit yours) But to the contrary these objective statistics inform my opinion.
Now I did as you asked re Klopp and it backs up my argument perfectly, here it is
Pool with Klopp in Prem league : P157-W98-D39-L20-POINTS-333
Pool for the 157 before Klopp : P157-W75-D39-L43-POINTS-264Now that is real impact impact and the sign that a manager has taken a club up a level or two. Klopp achieved 69 points more over only 157 games, Poch achieved only 17 more over 202 games.
To put it in another perspective, Pool averaged 1.68 points per game for the 157 games before Klopp arrived and 2.12 per game since he has arrived, Where as for Spurs, they averaged 1.81 points per game for the 202 games prior to Poch and 1.89 per game with him. You see the point here? I am not just picking stats to prove my opinion, I am basing my opinion on the objective stats. If Poch actually achieved more I would genuinely give him more credit.
P.s, before you dismiss this out of hand and talk about the VVD or Alisson fees, please consider that Poch didnt need to spend on a keeper as he inherited LLoris, and didnt need to get a top class centre back as he had Alde and Jan, and also remember how poor pools squad was for a lot of the first half of the 157 games compared to what Poch had at spurs.
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Yeah Mav I am very underwhelmed with Emery and thought he was far more capable than he is. This squad is better than this. Only a matter of time for him, and silva too.
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If I could pick the players to get over the next two windows, I would like Chilwell, Sancho and Timo Werner. Those three, or players of same profile and quality, would take us to another level when combined with the experience the core of our young players will gain this season, not to mention the experience Lamps will gain this season. Obviously a new back up keeper and centre back may come in as well, but unless we sell I think our midfield is the last area that needs strengthening. Dont think Chilwell is realistic but do think we have a chance with the other two.
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Frustrated with the mistakes but I thought some of our play was exceptional, even with Hazard and Sarri ball we didnt come near competing with city like that in terms of both possession and territory.
Its still quite promising for me. We defo need a new left back asap and come summer will need new winger as pedro is sure to go and Willian 90% sure to go. Maybe a centre back if Rudiger struggles for form or fitness. I also think a striker is on the cards as Bats is not good enough competition for Tammy. So Left back, winger and striker are priority positions to recruit for and maybe a centre back too.
Thats not to big of an ask to achieve over two windows if the ban is uplifted ahead of Jan. We could be ready to compete next season.
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